:Product: 1024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
24/0357Z from Region 3869 (S17E58). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/2131Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 24/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/0126Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Oct), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (27 Oct).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 197
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 200/200/205
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  013/015-015/018-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/55/30