:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/0733Z from Region 3873 (S10E63). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 414 km/s at 25/0735Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
25/1943Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
25/0345Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet levels
on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Oct).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 209
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 210/215/220
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  015/018-007/007-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/25
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/30/30