:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
26/0719Z from Region 3873 (S10E49). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28
Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 26/1739Z. Total IMF reached 26
nT at 26/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at
26/1821Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 26/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 Oct, 29 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (28 Oct). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/50/50
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 238
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 240/245/245
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  011/015-017/025-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/55/40