:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
27/1326Z from Region 3878 (N18E72). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29
Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2156Z. Total IMF reached 23
nT at 26/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
26/2146Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 273 pfu at 27/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (30 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(28 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day two (29 Oct) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     99/75/40
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 246
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 245/245/245
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  031/045-017/022-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/20
Minor Storm           35/25/05
Major-severe storm    25/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    80/65/25