:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
27/2324Z from Region 3878 (N18E72). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 28/0447Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 28/0423Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 28/0436Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 363 pfu at 28/1350Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (31 Oct).
Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Oct), are
expected to cross threshold on day two (30 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/75/40
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 255
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 265/275/270
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 221

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  022/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  014/015-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20