:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1633Z from Region 3873 (S08W36). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31
Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 29/0119Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
29/1812Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 240 pfu at 28/2235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Nov).
Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Oct), are
expected to cross threshold on day two (31 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     99/75/40
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 266
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 265/270/270
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 221

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  009/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    50/20/25