:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
31/1254Z from Region 3875 (N28W41). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02
Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 647 km/s at 31/0504Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 31/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2057Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 33 pfu at 31/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 291 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Nov).
Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (01 Nov), have a
chance of crossing threshold on day two (02 Nov) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     90/40/20
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 270
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 270/270/265
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  006/005-006/008-012/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/50