:Product: 1101RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Nov 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 31/2120Z from Region 3878 (N16E23). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 31/2226Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/2108Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15 pfu at 01/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Nov) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov). III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov Class M 75/75/75 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 50/30/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Nov 256 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 260/250/240 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 222 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 006/008-012/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/30 Minor Storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/50/45