:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0831Z from Region 3876 (S05W75). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 02/1838Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 02/1030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
02/1035Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 02/0210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov) and
quiet levels on day three (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    75/75/50
Class X    35/35/10
Proton     30/30/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 251
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 250/240/230
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  012/015-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/45/20