:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1524Z from Region 3869 (S18W74). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Nov) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (05 Nov)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 02/2345Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 03/0432Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
02/2132Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 02/2305Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (06 Nov).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (04 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day two (05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    75/65/50
Class X    30/20/10
Proton     20/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 241
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 240/230/230
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  010/010-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/25/20