:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 05 0510 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/0140Z from Region 3883 (S06E37). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06
Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 04/0016Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/2110Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 242
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 240/230/225
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  010/012-012/018-022/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/55/60