:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0654Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07
Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 05/1642Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/1336Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 245
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 230/225/220
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 221

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  012/018-022/024-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           15/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    55/65/40