:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
06/1340Z from Region 3883 (S06E07). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08
Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 06/0119Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/2316Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 260
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 225/220/230
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  022/026-015/016-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           25/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/45/55