:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/0754Z from Region 3889 (S10E66). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09
Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 07/1610Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/1755Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1292 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Nov, 10 Nov)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (09 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,
09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    85/85/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 239
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 265/260/250
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 219

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  015/016-017/020-017/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/15
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/55/25