:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/0301Z from Region 3883 (S06W20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10
Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 08/0745Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 08/1321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
08/1758Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Nov,
10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 231
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 230/230/225
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 219

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  017/020-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/40