:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/2050Z from Region 3889 (S10E41). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 09/0804Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 09/0806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 09/1057Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11
Nov, 12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 221
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 220/215/220
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 218

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  024/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/020-010/012-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/20