:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
10/1206Z from Region 3889 (S10E28). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12
Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 10/0215Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 09/2315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 10/0005Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 231
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 210/215/215
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 218

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  024/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  023/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  012/015-011/010-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor Storm           30/05/20
Major-severe storm    10/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/30/50