:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0543Z from Region 3889 (S10E11). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13
Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 11/0051Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 11/0833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0630Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 337 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 182
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 180/180/178
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 217

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  015/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  011/010-013/015-013/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/50/40