:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/0758Z from Region 3884 (S07W56). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14
Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 12/0128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/0408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/1425Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14
Nov, 15 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 172
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 172/170/170
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 216

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  011/015-013/012-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/40