:Product: 1113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1708Z from Region 3889 (S10W15). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 13/1212Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 13/1223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
13/1113Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 616 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15
Nov, 16 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 150
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 215

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  013/012-009/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/30