:Product: 1114RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Nov 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 13/2259Z from Region 3886 (S07W62). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 14/1252Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 14/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/1614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov). III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov Class M 60/60/60 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Nov 147 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 145/145/155 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 214 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 009/012-009/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/30/25