:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0137Z from Region 3889 (S09W57). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 15/2140Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/0255Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 346 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Nov, 19
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (18 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Nov,
18 Nov, 19 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 140
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 140/145/150
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 212

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  009/012-010/008-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/50/35