:Product: 1117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
17/1059Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (18 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 17/0319Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 17/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/1119Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 691 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    50/55/60
Class X    10/10/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 146
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 145/150/150
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 211

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  010/012-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/35/15