:Product: 1118RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Nov 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 18/1253Z from Region 3901 (S07E67). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (19 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 18/1441Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 528 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov). III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov Class M 50/55/60 Class X 10/10/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Nov 165 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 150/150/160 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 210 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 009/008-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 35/15/15