:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0000Z from Region 3889 (S09W95). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 19/1617Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/1706Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
19/1044Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 745 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 157
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 154/154/154
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 209

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/35