:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1948Z from Region 3897 (S12W90). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 20/0209Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 20/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
20/0758Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (21 Nov, 23 Nov) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 163
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 209

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/35/35