:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/1352Z from Region 3901 (S07E24). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 21/1443Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/1333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/1611Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 29 pfu at 21/2100Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 21/2010Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov,
23 Nov, 24 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (22 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     99/10/05
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 166
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 170/175/175
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 208

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  007/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35