:Product: 0311RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 10/2144Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/1236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4109 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar). III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar Class M 35/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Mar 161 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 009/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 007/010-012/015-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/30 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/45/40