:Product: 0321RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF reached 39 nT at 21/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 21/1614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 960 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Mar). III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Mar 165 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 019/028-011/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 40/15/05 Major-severe storm 25/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 15/30/25 Major-severe storm 79/40/30