:Product: 0720RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 19/2225Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14494 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (23 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul). III. Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jul 150 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 005/005-005/005-011/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/40