:Product: 0721RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (22 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 634 km/s at 21/0723Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/1745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13015 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jul, 24 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (22 Jul). III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul Class M 40/35/30 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jul 143 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 138/135/135 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/ 005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 009/012-017/025-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 15/25/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/55/50