:Product: 0723RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 23/1849Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 23/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 23/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jul). III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Jul 150 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 017/ 016 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 021/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 015/020-010/012-005/006 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/10 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 60/30/10