:Product: 0804RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 04/0345Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 794 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (05 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Aug). III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Aug 142 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 009/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/25/25