:Product: 0805RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 05/0611Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 629 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug). III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 156 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 007/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/20