:Product: 0806RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 06/0830Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 811 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (08 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09 Aug). III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Aug 158 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 010/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 009/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 009/011-022/032-021/026 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/30 Minor Storm 05/35/25 Major-severe storm 01/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/10 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/70/60