:Product: 0807RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 07/0711Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 752 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Aug). III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Aug 151 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 009/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 022/032-021/026-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/40 Minor Storm 35/25/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/05 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 70/60/65