:Product: 0808RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 08/2052Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 08/1648Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 08/1638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 659 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug). III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Aug 148 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 021/028-014/018-013/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/40 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 60/60/50