:Product: 0809RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 712 km/s at 09/0645Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 08/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 09/1154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 450 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Aug), unsettled to active levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Aug). III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Aug 140 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 018/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 038/055 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 017/018-013/018-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/40/30 Minor Storm 25/20/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 70/50/40