:Product: 0810RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 839 km/s at 10/0606Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/0148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3694 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug). III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Aug 153 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 027/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 013/018-014/015-013/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/30 Minor Storm 20/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/40/35