:Product: 0811RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 10/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6325 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Aug, 13 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug). III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Aug 146 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 017/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 014/015-013/012-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/35/30