:Product: 0812RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 694 km/s at 12/2016Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0705Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3163 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Aug). III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Aug 152 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 017/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 013/012-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 45/45/45