:Product: 0813RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (14 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 710 km/s at 13/0250Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1439Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8355 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (16 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Aug). III. Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug Class M 50/45/45 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Aug 140 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 012/ 014 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 008/010-008/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/10 Minor Storm 10/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 45/45/20