:Product: 0814RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 14/0615Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3824 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug). III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug Class M 35/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Aug 130 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 017/ 015 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 008/010-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/10/10 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 45/20/20