:Product: 0815RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 15/0827Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0003Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4262 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 Aug). III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Aug 123 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 013/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 006/005-006/005-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor Storm 01/01/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/45