:Product: 0820RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 842 km/s at 20/0549Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/0028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 537 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (23 Aug). III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug Class M 15/15/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Aug 120 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 016/ 019 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 012/014-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 50/25/20