:Product: 0821RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (22 Aug, 23 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (24 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 21/0638Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1125 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug). III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug Class M 15/20/25 Class X 01/01/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Aug 121 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/20