:Product: 0822RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (25 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 778 km/s at 22/0600Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 876 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Aug). III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug Class M 15/20/25 Class X 01/01/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Aug 136 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 138/145/140 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 006/005-006/005-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/35 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 20/20/50