:Product: 0823RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 22/2356Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 967 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 Aug). III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug Class M 35/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Aug 143 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 006/005-010/012-011/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/35/40 Minor Storm 01/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/50/55