:Product: 0824RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 24/0531Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1754Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 24/1945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1495 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug). III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 50/50/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Aug 152 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 152/152/155 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 010/012-011/015-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/20 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/55/25