:Product: 0825RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 25/0855Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/0915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 25/1231Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 25/1415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1860 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Aug). III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 85/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Aug 175 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 152/155/155 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 137 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 011/015-009/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/25/25